The trade war hurts Trump's approval ratings

 

President Donald Trump had perhaps one of the biggest setbacks for his agenda this week.  Trump blinked and announced a 90-day pause on his "reciprocal tariffs" on Tuesday evening, following a whirlwind performance in overnight markets. This was said by Trump himself after markets became "a little queasy." Also, it happened after JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who is probably the most well-liked Wall Street executive, said that a recession was likely. It turns out that even as the Republican Congress and the courts largely stand by, one thing can grind Trump to a halt: the bond market, which went haywire on Tuesday evening.

 But Trump did not just make Wall Street sick.  The University of Michigan’s survey of consumers found that consumer sentiment dropped for the fourth straight month in a row, 30 percent since December 2024.  Even so, Trump continued to impose duties totaling 145% on China and a 10% general tariff on all other nations. Additionally, it appears that Trump's actions have hurt his approval. This week, The Economist and YouGov released a survey of Trump’s approval rating conducted between April 5 and April 8, meaning it came after Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement of tariffs.

 The results are not great for Trump.  51 percent of Americans, or a small majority, disapprove of him. By comparison, when he first took office, only 43 percent of Americans disapproved of him.  He is now about as unpopular as he was at this moment in his first term as president.

 In addition, Trump's popularity among young people between the ages of 18 and 29 has decreased. The significant shift to the right among young people, particularly young men, was one of the most significant stories of 2024. But in January, 48 percent of Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 approved of Trump’s performance.  Now, only 32 percent of young people approve of the way he is handling the job of president.

 Additionally, he dropped from a 55% approval rate among men as a whole to an even 48% approval and 48% disapproval rating. Trump does even worse when it comes to individual issues.  When he took office earlier this year, 49 percent of Americans approved of the way he handled the economy and only 37 percent disapproved.  Now, 51 percent of Americans disapprove of how Trump is handling the economy and 41 percent approve, a stunning reversal.

 Not surprisingly, most Americans don’t like his tariffs: 52 percent overall oppose the policy, and 27 percent of independents oppose them.  With 59% of young Americans opposing the tariffs, young people between the ages of 18 and 29 are more opposed than any other age group. At this point, the only thing keeping Trump viable in polling terms is his immigration policies.  Aside from tariffs, Trump’s proposals for mass deportations were probably the only clear policy Trump articulated on the campaign trail.

 Only 44% of respondents expressed disapproval of Trump's immigration policies, according to the survey. But that is a smaller margin than expected, especially since Trump partially won because of Americans’ frustration with the influx of migrants at the US-Mexico border.

 It is unclear whether the Trump administration's repeated actions of sending migrants to El Salvador or publicly defying immigration orders will influence public opinion. Still, at this point, immigration remains his strong suit.  But it's pretty clear that if he continues with his erratic trade actions, that probably won't keep him safe.